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At its best, futures research can change priorities and attitudes within organizations, and bring fresh meaning to the present. But its recommendations are not always politically convenient, and a much‐heralded report can be just as discreetly shelved. A key role for futurists is therefore to inspire decision‐makers with alternative futures and choices, demonstrating their technical feasibility, and warning of the consequences of inaction. But behind every corporate decision there is a battle for hearts and minds – and they have rules of their own.

The world is increasingly complex and the most serious challenges are global in nature. Questions to do with sustainable and equitable development, democratic change, terrorism and transnational crime, for instance, require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. This article, which describes 15 global challenges compiled as part of the Millennium Project’s 2002 State of the Future report, assesses the global and local prospects for humanity.

This article reports on an international assessment to identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the US Army’s transformation efforts. Many factors, such as new kinds of weapons, increasing demands on natural resources, urbanization and globalization, are making the planning of environmental viability for life support more important in the future. The article highlights eight environmental security developments and potential military requirements to address them.

In the aftermath of the Iraq war, global attention to the resolution of the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict has increased, but the way ahead still seems as difficult as before. The lack of trust on both sides has led to the development of the internationally backed “Road map for peace” that avoids direct negotiation between the parties. This inability to communicate, cooperate and compromise could be alleviated by plausible peace scenarios – stories connecting the future and present for the Middle East. This article reports on the results so far of the Millennium Project’s study to create such scenarios.

The aim of this paper is to discuss key factors of long-term (sustainable) development and prosperity. There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation: dependence theory, the influence of geographical and environmental factors and cultural determinism. But there are perhaps three other important factors for successful development: education, caring for public space and future oriented thinking.

Why are some nations poor and some are rich? The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of development. Or rather, maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to create some inventive synthesis. To formulate such synthesis, calculation of future oriented thinking index can help us to understand better why some communities and nations are poor and some are rich. Perhaps future oriented thinking is the main key to prosperity and success.

If future oriented thinking is an important factor to prosperity and success, then an instrument is needed to measure it – the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI). Future Oriented Thinking Index is by methodological approach close to the State of the Future Index (SOFI) developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project. But FOTI should focus more on identifying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, less on “state of the future“ (measuring whether a situation will improve or deteriorate). Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI.

Many economists, environmentalists and other experts have long been cooperating in designing an alternative indicator to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capable of better capturing the long-term development of society and not just economic performance in a narrow sense. Future Oriented Thinking Index calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical average of 23 selected variables (individual indicators, all available from publicly accessible sources) is a new approach to complement such indexes as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, the Environmental Sustainability Index, or the State of the Future Index.

The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.

Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three‐round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios.

The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status.

The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.

This article presents a scenario based on the inputs of 550 futurists, scholars, business planners and policy advisers from around the world. Their views on global developments were distilled into a range of issues, opportunities and actions to address. These have been woven together into a scenario based on achieving norms by 2050 that were identified and rated by Millennium Project participants from around the world. This scenario describes how technological success, human development, and economic/political policies achieved a global economy that appears to be environmentally sustainable while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life and the majority with a comfortable living. The resulting social stability has created a relatively peaceful world and allowed the exploration of possible futures for the second half of the 21st century.

Conventional Delphi studies use sequential questionnaires and produce rich information synthesized from the judgments of the experts who participate. However such studies are usually time‐consuming. The purpose of this paper is to describe one of the first applications of a new method of applying the Delphi principles of feedback and anonymity that can greatly reduce the time required for such studies.

This approach involves continuously updated, on‐line questionnaires and is therefore “roundless.”

The application described here is a global Millennium Project study of developments for inclusion in a series of energy scenarios. The “roundless” approach was found to produce rich information comparable to the more time consuming conventional method.

While other on‐line questionnaire systems exist, the approach described here is novel and may have wide applications.

Corporate and institutional managers don’t get the full return on investment in scenarios that they should, nor do they employ scenarios on the full range of corporate issues suited to this methodology. Most often, scenarios are used by top management to provide a better understanding of the range of possible business environments they must contend with in the future. But mid‐level managers often grumble that these big picture “strategic scenarios” don’t address the competitive issues and the critical decisions that they face in the trenches of their business. To achieve more consistently productive uses of scenarios, there are several major challenges that must be addressed for the future of the scenario method: resolve the confusion over the definitions and methods of scenarios; and clarify and enlarge the appropriate application of scenarios. Beyond the confusion caused by the different definitions and methods of scenarios lies the uncertainty about when and how to apply scenarios in the business environment. In addition to planning and forecasting, scenarios can be used for market research and new product development. A major debate revolves around whether or not scenarios have successfully developed into a tool for investment and company decision‐making. One view has been that scenarios provide context, but not direct inputs for such decisions (R&D priorities, new products, and financial investments). This approach emphasizes the role of scenarios in team building, information gathering, learning, and strategic thinking. It advocates using scenarios primarily as a tool for corporate learning and for changing corporate culture. Another view, however, holds that scenarios can and should be used for near‐term business decision‐making. Scenarios need to be applied to the numerous operational issues that companies face. As such, they are a key method of analysis, especially for highly uncertain circumstances.